Oscar Predictions 2014

This Oscars eve, as hopeful first-time nominees draft their speeches, Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson mourn their snubs and Ellen DeGeneres inevitably practices her opening monologue over and over in the mirror, anticipation surrounding the eventual trophy winners is riding ever high. Whether or not you place regard upon the Academy’s winning picks, for many audiences they are an objective measure of the best Hollywood has to offer in cinema.

In recent years, more often than not, the Academy has overlooked great films (ie. Shame, The Descendants) to favour safer choices (ie. The Artist, Argo, The Hurt Locker) and the divide between critics and mainstream audiences has widened. But this year is unusually special given the strong frontrunners, notably 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle, which offer a means of re-establishing Oscar with some prestige.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle


Captain Phillips


Dallas Buyers Club


Gravity

Her


Nebraska

Philomena


The Wolf of Wall Street

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Should win: Gravity

Better not win: Dallas Buyer’s Club

It would be most prudent to place my bets on 12 Years a Slave to take out the main award. Steve McQueen’s film is ultimately too important and historically significant to approximate otherwise. Its marketing campaign has reminded voters that a Best Picture win for the slave-drama would go a long way in recognising the great sin in American history and bridging any lasting cultural barriers.

Undoubtedly, Gravity is going to win more statues (Visual Effects is almost a certain), so it’s safe to say this spot is reserved for 12 Years a Slave.

Unlikely, however possible, American Hustle could be the dark horse having already deservingly won Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG Awards.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity


Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave


Alexander Payne, Nebraska


David O. Russell, American Hustle


Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Better not win: Anyone but Alfonso Cuarón

There is no doubt in my mind: Cuarón deserves gold. His genius cannot be understated when it comes to what he achieved technologically with Gravity. His skilled camera-movement and use of long shots gives the Mexican-British director a clear edge in this category. Not to mention he’s already taken home prizes from the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s.

I am glad to see McQueen’s name included after his second feature Shame was shamefully overlooked, but will he win for 12 Years a Slave? Although a close threat, it seems this category is a no brainer.

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle


Bruce Dern, Nebraska


Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street


Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave


Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Will win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Should win: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips


Better not win: All the actors are deserving in their own right

Did academy voters fall and bump their head, and then suffer from a terrible case of amnesia? Have they forgotten Tom Hank’s as Captain Phillips, or are they just heartless monsters? As grave a mistake this omission is, we should probably count our blessings that it is one of the very few the Academy made this year.

Matthew McConaughey has gained favour in recent years having reignited his career with a wealth of commendable performances (Killer Joe, Mud) and it is probable he will be rewarded for his turn as Ron Woodroof, a rodeo cowboy diagnosed with HIV in Dallas Buyers Club.

Chiwetel Ejiofor is a close contender in the role of Solomon Northup, a free man turned slave, as is Leonardo DiCaprio as the hedonistic stoke broker Jordan Belfort. Dern was once a favourite but has quickly fell from the spotlight. And as brilliant as Christian Bale is and while he sports an extraordinary comb over in American Hustle, there is little to no chance he will win.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle



Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine



Sandra Bullock, Gravity



Judi Dench, Philomena



Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Will win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine


Should win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine


Better not win: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

And the winner is… Cate Blanchett. Cate Blanchett. Cate Blanchett. Her name has been echoed at every film award ceremony this season, clean sweeping every Best Actress award known to man. She is a master at work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, discarding all vanity in the role of a new-york socialite turned San-Francisco pauper, who gradually withdraws from reality down the rabbit hole of delusion, washing down her Xanaxes with cocktails of vodka.

I’d be willing to bet my house on this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips



Bradley Cooper, American Hustle



Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave



Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street



Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Will win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club 


Should win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave



Better not win: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

On closer inspection, there are no clear-cut personal favorites to win. While I enjoyed Bradley Cooper’s performance in American Hustle, it pales in comparison to the bipolar Pat Solitano in Silver Linings Playbook last year. Similarly, Michael Fassbender brought to life a stunningly hateful and cruel slave owner in 12 Years a Slave, but it doesn’t quite surpass his act in Shame. Nevertheless, he deserves awards recognition on a commercial stage.

It is likely however that Jared Leto will win for his perfectly decent portrayal of a transgender woman, which is both sensitive and convincing. But perhaps long shot Barkhad Abdi, who won the BAFTA for Captain Phillips, may accumulate enough swing-votes to get him over the line.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS


Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine



Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle



Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave



Julia Roberts, August: Osage County



June Squibb, Nebraska

Will win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave 


Should win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave and Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
 are equally deserving

Better not win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

As much as I love Jennifer Lawrence, as much as you love Jennifer Lawrence, as much as everyone loves Jennifer Lawrence, there is no one more deserving of this award than Lupita Nyong’o. Her remarkable debut as tortured slave Patsey in 12 Years a Slave burns an everlasting mark on your soul and towers over Lawrence’s limited screen presence in American Hustle.

Sally Hawkins is my second favourite, having greatly enjoyed her performance in Blue Jasmine, which proved to be just as significant to the success of Woody Allen’s script as Blanchett’s.